We employ a Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the...

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This paper studies a new class of semiparametric dynamic panel data models, in which some coefficients are allowed to depend on some informative variables and some regressors can be endogenous. To estimate both parametric and nonparametric coefficients, a three-stage semiparametric estimation...

This paper estimates the effect of institutions on economic performance using cross-city data from China. We argue that China’s ongoing reforms are part of a long and circuitous historical transition from antiquity to modernity, which started about 150 years ago. Learning from Western...

It is well known that the standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test loses its local optimality when the true non-null model is not correctly specified. In this paper, we derive a score test robust to local and distributional misspecifications for spatial error autocorrelation and spatial lag...

We measure the correlations between two cities’ real GDP growth rates (a measure of business cycle correlations) to capture the degree of segmentation across China’s provincial and regional borders. This type of segmentation can be caused by local protectionism as well as other...

We show that independently repeated cross-sectional data can reduce the asymptotic bias when instruments are weakly correlated to the endogenous variables. When both N and T go to infinite, we can obtain consistent estimators even if instruments are weak.

We show that when instruments are nearly exogenous, the two stage least squares t-statistic unpredictably over-rejects or under-rejects the null hypothesis that the endogenous regressor is insignificant and Anderson-Rubin test over-rejects the null. We prove that in the limit these tests are no...

This paper models the return series of USD/CNY exchange rate by considering the conditional mean and conditional volatility simultaneously. An index type functional-coefficient model is adopted to model the conditional mean part and a GARCH type model with a policy dummy variable is applied to...

Whether natural resources boost or deter economic development remains an open question in the literature. Papyrakis and Gerlagh (2007) found a significant negative association between economic growth and resource abundance at a U.S.-state level. They demonstrated that resource abundance crowds...