This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, as well as the euro area, using both final revised data and real-time data. We are particularly interested in the impact of adding asset prices to the standard Taylor rule specification. Since...

Stock markets periodically experience sharp falls with some referred to as outright crashes. The extant literature has generally resorted to survey type evidence to determine the behavior of investors during such episodes. These kind of studies come to the conclusion that fundamentals play...

In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989 – 1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate,...

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen politischen Zyklen und Aktienrenditen in Deutschland. Während sich die bis dato verfügbaren Studien über politisch bedingte Aktienmarktanomalien auf die USA konzentrieren, analysieren wir deren Existenz in deutschen Aktienrenditen....

In this paper, we investigate the effect of institutional investors on the January stock market anomaly. The Polish and Hungarian pension system reforms and the associated increase in investment activities of pension funds are used as a unique institutional characteristic to provide evidence on...