JEL Classification: E3, E40, E50, N10

There is scant empirical support in the literature for the Fisher effect in the long run, though it is often assumed in theoretical models. We argue that a break in the cointegrating relation introduces a spurious unit root that leads to a rejection of cointegration. We applied new break tests...

Abstract: We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real and nominal output growth and inflation. We pick cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years, using band-pass filters. We employ a data set from 1880...