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Since the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009, the unemployment rate has recovered slowly, falling by only one percentage point from its peak. We find that the lackluster labor market recovery can be traced in large part to weakness in aggregate demand; only a small part seems attributable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395272
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010728016
which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026939
exhibited important departures from that seen in prior deep recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008489225
We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead … forecast horizon for predicting aggregate economic activity and, especially, for signaling future recessions. We document this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361466