This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model’s parameters and where it...

In this paper, we propose a novel policy-game model to analyze the simultaneous interaction between the government and the labour union in a unionized economy. Our model explains how the economic and political interaction between labour unions, concerning wages and strikes, and the government,...

A methodological discussion is proposed, aiming at illustrating an analogy between game theory in particular (and mathematical economics in general) and quantum mechanics. This analogy relies on the equivalence of the two fundamental operators employed in the two fields, namely, the expected...

We offer the first direct evidence of an implicit contract in a goods market. The evidence comes from the market for Coca-Cola. We demonstrate that the Coca-Cola Company left a written evidence of its implicit contract with its consumers—a very explicit form of an implicit contract. The...

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also...

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of...

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method is a popular smoothing method for economic time series to get a smooth or long-term component of stationary series like growth rates. We show that the HP smoother can be viewed as a Bayesian linear model with a strong prior using differencing matrices for the...

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method is a popular smoothing method for economic time series to get a longterm component of stationary series like growth rates. The new extended HP smoothing model is applied to data-sets with an underlying metric and requires a Bayesian linear regression model with a...

This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) to detect, date stamp, and estimate speculative bubbles. Three features make this new approach attractive to practitioners. first, the iHMM is capable of capturing the nonlinear dynamics of different types of bubble behaviors as it...

This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and the structural break dynamics in a single, coherent Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical structures, one governing the transition probabilities and another governing the parameters of the...