This paper aims to investigate the presence of a creditless economic recovery in Eastern Europe, after de 2008-2009 output collapse. To this end, we use three variables: credit stock, credit flow and money supply M1. We find that the changes in the credit flow, as percentage of GDP, are the most...

A large set of financial variables has only limited power to predict a latent factor common to the year-ahead forecast errors for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for three sets of professional forecasters: the Federal...

We investigate the relationship between financial market frictions and economic activity in Mexico by constructing and decomposing a credit spread index from bonds issued by non-financial corporations in domestic markets, following Gilchrist and Zakrajsek (2012). We show that the credit spread...

This paper employs a calibrated model of the US economy to analyze the boom and bust in house prices as well as the shifts in the distribution of wealth during the years around the Great Recession. We replicate the dynamics of the housing market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution...

This paper attempts to identify how monetary policy shocks affect stock prices by using Mundell and Fleming's theory of the Impossible Trinity. According to this theory, it is impossible to simultaneously have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement (an absence of capital controls), and an...

After a long period of loose monetary policy triggered by the Great Recession, some central banks are signaling that they will raise their policy rates soon. Previous research, for example, Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) and Ozdagli (2014), has shown that asset prices react more strongly to...

This paper investigates whether small firms have experienced worse tightening of credit conditions during the Great Recession than large firms. To structure the empirical analysis, the paper first develops a simple model of bank loan pricing that derives both the interest rates on loans actually...

This work studies the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio flows on house prices of emerging market economies using a static factors panel VARX model. The results show that an increase in both FDI and portfolio flows leads to higher house prices, but that portfolio flows have...

This study uses Japanese data to address an important shortcoming of most of the existing literature on credit availability by including a set of unlisted firms (which are the firms most likely to be bank dependent) in the analysis, and by investigating differences between the treatment of...

We investigate the misallocation of credit in Japan associated with banks’ evergreening loans, distinguishing between two types of firm distress: (perhaps temporary) financial distress and technical distress, which reflects weak operational capabilities, as indicated by low total factor...