Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Wachstumseffekte öffentlicher Investitionen in die sozial-ökologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine drastische Ausweitung der öffentlichen Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen in Deutschland einen Wirtschaftsboom...

This study analyzes the short-run effects on the German economy of the fossil energy crisis in 2022 and discusses some implications for the design of a resilient, renewable energy system. The study shows that the energy crisis led to a short-run output loss comparable to the output losses...

We embed a news shock, a noisy indicator of the future state, in a two-state Markovswitching growth model. Our framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that arrives during a prolonged economic boom can trigger a...

This paper analyzes whether there exists a relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future economic activity in Mexico for the period 2004-2019. In particular, we evaluate whether such relationship depends on the term premium. For this purpose, we estimate a threshold model in which...

We build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production of finished goods, while finished goods (output) inventories yield utility services. The model is estimated...

In this paper we analyze the synchronization between the business cycles of US and Mexican regions. Regional economic activity in Mexico is measured using regional coincident indexes recently developed at Banco de México, while US aggregate economic activity is measured with the national...

This paper employs a calibrated model of the US economy to analyze the boom and bust in house prices as well as the shifts in the distribution of wealth during the years around the Great Recession. We replicate the dynamics of the housing market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution...

In considering whether asset-price bubbles should be offset through policy, an important issue is who pays the price when the bubble bursts. A bust that reduces the wealth of well-off households only may have small welfare costs, but costs may be sizable if broad swaths of households are...

After the bursting of the housing-price bubble in 2006 and ensuing financial crisis, there has been much discussion of what economists could have done differently to help avert the crisis and "Great Recession" that followed. One dimension of this concerns information supplied by economists to...

The authors derive an estimate of the Federal Reserve's assessment of the natural rate of unemployment in real time from the Greenbook forecast of inflation. The estimated natural rate starts to rise noticeably in the second half of the mid-1970s. It stays relatively high in the 1980s, and then...