The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

In the early 70s Merton developed a theory based on economic arguments to study the properties of option and warrant prices. The main tool in his proofs was the portfolio dominance principle. In the context where the price of a contingent claim satisfies a partial differential equation we...

We give a new way to price American options, using Samuelson´s formula. We first obtain the option price corresponding to a European option at time t, weighting it by the probability that the underlying asset takes the value S at time t. This factor is given by the solution of the Fokker-Planck...

This paper introduces an indicator of consumers' inflation expectations based on data from the National Consumer Confidence Survey of Mexico (ENCO, in Spanish), and tests its predictive power over CPI inflation and other measures of inflation that correspond to smaller baskets of consumer goods,...

Payment systems play a key role in the financial infrastructure of all modern economies. Participants of payment systems need access to intraday liquidity to fulfill their payment obligations. They do that either using their own funds, which are costly, or recycling incoming payment. In order to...

We analyze the contribution of production factors to revenue growth in almost the complete universe of U.S. hospitals, accounting for quality and productivity. Production factors (capital, labor, energy, materials and drugs) contributed 70% (drugs alone contributed 52 %), better health outcomes...

This study decomposes both the labor productivity gap and the labor productivity growth into the contributions of technical efficiency, capital deepening and technological change for Mexican manufacturing at the regional level. In order to do so, we apply a methodology that combines two...

Motivated by the apparent failure of the credit multiplier mechanism (CM) to deliver amplification in DSGE models, we re-examine its role in business cycles to address the question: is something wrong with the CM? Our answer is no. In coming to this answer we construct a model with reproducible...

This paper analyzes the adjustment strategies used by some Mexican firms to face supply and demand shocks. The information is provided by a survey carried out in 2012 by Banco de México among 1,138 firms from different sectors. The results show that the response of firms to both types of shocks...

Empirical evidence shows that sovereign defaults are associated with significant downturns in economic activity in defaulting countries. However, the existing literature on sovereign debt and default mainly analyzes endowment economies and, therefore, does not address the relationship between...