In the early 70s Merton developed a theory based on economic arguments to study the properties of option and warrant prices. The main tool in his proofs was the portfolio dominance principle. In the context where the price of a contingent claim satisfies a partial differential equation we...

We give a new way to price American options, using Samuelson´s formula. We first obtain the option price corresponding to a European option at time t, weighting it by the probability that the underlying asset takes the value S at time t. This factor is given by the solution of the Fokker-Planck...

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

We study global properties of the equilibrium set of economies with a continuous consumption space. This framework is important in intertemporal allocation problems (continuous or infinite time), financial markets with uncertainty (continuous states of nature) and commodity differentiation. We...

In this paper, we contribute to the discussion of what determines country risk by arguing that an important explanatory factor is the impact that commodities have on the capacity to pay. We use a newly created data base with state-level fiscal and risk premium data for Brazil states between 1891...

The main contribution of this paper is to place smooth infinite economies in the setting of the equilibrium manifold and the natural projection map à la Balasko. We show that smooth infinite economies have an equilibrium set that has the structure of a Banach manifold and that the natural...

This paper analyzes a boundedly rational decision maker who is uncertain about his preference and faces the following trade-off: adding a good to the choice set has a positive option value but increases the complexity of the choice problem. The increased complexity is modeled as a reduction of...

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set...

We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and...

In this paper we do a statistical analysis of the Mexican Consumer Price Index microdata set to characterize the rigidities of the price setting process in the different sectors of the Mexican economy. The microdata set goes from July 2002 to December 2009. Broadly, results show that there...