The goal of this paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of modeluncertainty. Using data for the Euro Area, the US and the U.K., we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach, and there is a large...

We build structural VARs for the euro area to analyze the responses of a set of euro area macroeconomic variables to monetary policy and technology shocks. We then test their robustness to different specifications of hours worked, sample periods and the definition of the variables used. We...

Taking stock of the recent developments in the New Open Macroeconomics literature, we build a two country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area and the US, with nominal rigidities and imperfect exchange rate passthrough. The model is calibrated using parameters...

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of a technology shock in the euro area within a structural VAR framework. Since the impact of these shocks on labor use is a controversial issue in the related literature, we give particular attention to it. Given that the estimated effects of a...

This paper uses a VAR approach to study the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Portugal, focusing in particular on the financial decisions of households, corporations (financial/non-financial), the government and the rest of the world. We confirm that, in many ways, households and firms...

This paper reassesses the role of the M3 aggregate for monetary policy purposes in the euro area. Using data until 2006Q4 it is shown that the M3 aggregate ceased to display the empirical properties that supported its prominent role in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. On the one hand, when...

This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real...

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal...