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A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria.
Armour, J.; Atta-Mensah, J.; Engert, W.; Hendry, S. - Bank of Canada - 1996
A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is … output gap and past prices. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673307
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Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns.
Godbout, M.J.; Van Norden, S. - Bank of Canada - 1996
that log prices are integrated of order one I(1) and that log returns should therefore be integrated of order zoro I(0 …). It has been suggested that this should be interpreted as evidence of the importance of regime- switching in asset prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536889
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Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity
Alquist, Ron; Coibion, Olivier - Bank of Canada - 2014
Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor …-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model … yields a factor structure for commodity prices and identification conditions that provide the factors with an economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849946
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Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
Bi, Huixin; Leeper, Eric M.; Leith, Campbell - Bank of Canada - 2013
The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849954
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Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Xu, TengTeng - Bank of Canada - 2013
This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849962
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A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy
Alpanda, Sami; Cateau, Gino; Meh, Césaire - Bank of Canada - 2014
We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features. First, it allows for non-trivial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849963
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Housing and Tax Policy
Alpanda, Sami; Zubairy, Sarah - Bank of Canada - 2013
frictions in the form of collateral constraints tied to house prices, and a rental housing market alongside owner …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849964
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On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility
Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Vincent, Nicolas - Bank of Canada - 2014
mechanism that allows retailers to price discriminate across consumers with different opportunity costs of time. In line with … response to a monetary contraction, firms facing costs of decreasing regular prices post more sales, and households spend more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960391
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Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy
Andolfatto, David; Hendry, Scott; Moran, Kevin - Bank of Canada - 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005220958
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Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter
Bailliu, Jeannine; Meh, Césaire; Zhang, Yahong - Bank of Canada - 2012
This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651312