A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is … found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from …

into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. …

expectation formation and the behaviour of macroeconomic agents. Inflation expectations, in particular, have received a great deal … be used to extract useful measures of inflation persistence. This paper presents a new measure of U.S. inflation … persistence from the point of view of a professional forecaster, referred to as perceived inflation persistence. It is built via …

We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy … rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important … persistent cost-push pressures in the economy leading to a significant deterioration in the inflation – output gap trade …

business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation. The … degree of price rigidity and the level of trend inflation in the data-generating model, we find that the estimated indexation …

being characterized by continuous and unpredictable-type shifts in the inflation-dynamics coefficients. …

inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide … range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity … cities, and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments in manufacturing are among the best predictors of core inflation. The …

The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging … market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of … these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico. The authors focus on three …