After drawing some lessons for fiscal policy from previous emerging market crises, Zsolt Darvas concludes with some thoughts on the appropriate policy response from a more normative perspective. The key message of the paper is that the crisis should be used as an opportunity to introduce reforms...

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of CEES countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which starting their economic transition about twenty years ago. Evidence shows that the crisis has had...

This background paper describes in detail the assumptions and calculations behind the results presented in Zsolt Darvas, Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir "A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis", Bruegel Policy Brief No 2011/02, February 2011. An assessment of the results and...

At a time of symmetric global slowdown, migration cannot contribute as much to absorbing economic shocks as it could if the shock were asymmetric. Early evidence suggests that the crisis has led to a drop in immigration and even net return migration from some countries. This has helped the...

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas and Valentina Kostyleva examines the role of fiscal and monetary institutions in macroeconomic stability and budgetary control in CESEE (central, eastern and south eastern European) countries in comparison to other OECD countries. A new budgetary discipline...

As a background document for the Policy Contribution â??Compositional effects on productivity, labour cost and export adjustmentâ??, this working paper presents detailed results for 24 EU countries on: â?¢ The sectoral changes in the economy;â?¢ The unit labour costs (ULC) based real...

Click here for the most recently updated database The real effective exchange rate (REER), which measures the development of the real value of a countryâ??s currency against the basket of the trading partners of the country, is a frequently used variable in both theoretical and applied economic...

We study the transmission of monetary policy to macroeconomic variables with structural time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, in comparison with that in the euro area. These three countries have experienced changes in monetary policy regimes...

See comment 'Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet out of the woods' This working paper details and updates the debt sustainability analysis of Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The goal is not the calculation of a baseline scenario which best corresponds...

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation...