The European Semester is a new institutional process that provides EU member states with ex-ante guidance on fiscal and structural objectives. The Semesterâ??s goals are ambitious and it is still uncertain how it will fit into the new EU economic governance framework. We find that member states...

Anna Iara and Guntram Wolff develop a model of sovereign spreads that are determined by the probability of default in interaction with the level of risk aversion. Estimation of the model confirms the central predictions. The legal basis for the rules, and mechanisms for enforcing them, are the...

The euro area faces a double challenge: debt overhang and the need for price adjustment. This paper reviews the debt challenges in the household and corporate sectors and maps out some policy options. In particular, we document the increase in private debt prior to the crisis and consider how...

We analyse corporate balance sheet adjustment episodes in Germany and Japan, as well as a sample of 30 countries, using national account data. Corporate balance sheet adjustment tends to be long lasting and associated with a strong impact on current accounts, wages and investment. Adjustment...

The strong relation between sovereign and banking stress is frequently emphasised, especially since the start of the European sovereign debt crisis. This working paper sheds light on the determinants of the link. It studies the stock market performance and the holdings of government debt of the...

After drawing some lessons for fiscal policy from previous emerging market crises, Zsolt Darvas concludes with some thoughts on the appropriate policy response from a more normative perspective. The key message of the paper is that the crisis should be used as an opportunity to introduce reforms...

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of CEES countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which starting their economic transition about twenty years ago. Evidence shows that the crisis has had...

This background paper describes in detail the assumptions and calculations behind the results presented in Zsolt Darvas, Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir "A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis", Bruegel Policy Brief No 2011/02, February 2011. An assessment of the results and...

At a time of symmetric global slowdown, migration cannot contribute as much to absorbing economic shocks as it could if the shock were asymmetric. Early evidence suggests that the crisis has led to a drop in immigration and even net return migration from some countries. This has helped the...

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas and Valentina Kostyleva examines the role of fiscal and monetary institutions in macroeconomic stability and budgetary control in CESEE (central, eastern and south eastern European) countries in comparison to other OECD countries. A new budgetary discipline...