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The study evaluates the forecasting ability of models of South Africa’s real fixed business nonresidential investment … spending growth over the recent 2003:1–2011:4 out-of-sample period. The forecasting models are based on the Accelerator …, Stock Price and Return Predictors models appear more important in forecasting the behaviour of South Africa’s business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691506
forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and … AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196639
the random walk model, suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009370795
benchmarks (naive and autoregressive models) in forecasting real US house price over the annual out-of-sample period of 1859 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149761
Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011214021
20 bivariate regression models, are used in order to capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149763
equilibria in response to shocks and the model specification is superior in forecasting performance out of sample to alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039674
generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010754110
forecasting the metical-rand exchange rate, both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting and predicting turning points. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773184
We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096977