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detects predictability for both the full-sample and the last sub-sample at short (2 to 2.6 months) and long (10.3 months and …, and hence, could detect predictability at certain cycle lengths even when the time domain causality test might fail to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010728838
This paper examines whether a volatility/risk transmission exists between world energy and the US financial markets during the pre-, the in-, and the post-2008 crisis periods by employing world oil prices and Cleveland financial stress index. It also explores causal dynamics and derives the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752447
This paper considers the role of the real housing price in the Great Depression. More specifically, we examine structural stability of the relationship between the real housing price and real GDP per capita. We test for structural change in parameter values, using a sample of annual US data from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010754109
changes into account, we assess stability of parameters of the estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We find both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010755816
This paper empirically examines the causal linkages between policy uncertainty and house prices in a panel of seven advanced countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US. We implement a bootstrap panel causality test on quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2013Q1, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010755817
This paper analyses the economic sources underlying the comovement of real house prices in South Africa. We use quarterly provincial-level data from 1974:Q1 to 2011:Q4. First, we disentangle the national component of real house price movements from the local (provincial or region-specific)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667462
This paper studies the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time varying parameter VAR. Using South African …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010643573
In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm’s own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710050
Tobacco control policies have effectively raised the price of cigarettes and other tobacco products. However, these price increases have been shown to disproportionately fall upon poorer households, with fewer resources. In this analysis, we provide an initial indication of the effect increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828375
small information sets, by showing the sensitivity of the results to sample size using a small-scale VAR typically used in … outperform the VAR in forecasting the growth rate of real GNP, we concluded that the FAVAR framework is superior and should be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828377