January 22, 2000 (Revised) <p> Endogenous Uncertainty is that component of economic risk and market volatility which is propagated within the economy by the beliefs and actions of agents. The theory of Rational Belief (see Kurz [1994]) permits rational agents to hold diverse beliefs and...</p>

December 2001 <p> We provide evidence that private forecasters and the staff of the Federal Reserve use different forecasting models to predict inflation and GNP growth and heterogeneity of forecasting models is the norm in the market place. We thus argue that neither the Fed nor commercial...</p>

November 9, 1995 (First version: July 1994) <p>This paper views uncertainty and economic fluctuations as being primarily endogenous and internally propagated phenomena. The most important Endogenous Uncertainty examined in this paper is price uncertainty which arises when agents do not have...</p>

September 4, 1997 <p> We review the issues related to the formulation of endogenous uncertainty in rational belief equilibria(RBE). In all previous models of RBE, individual states of belief were the foundation for the construction of the endogenous state space where individual states of belief...</p>

November 28, 1995 (First draft: June 1992) <p>This paper introduces the concept of Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) as a basis for a new theory of asset pricing. Rational Beliefs are probability beliefs about future economic variables which cannot be contradicted by the data generated by the...</p>

February 12, 1996 (First draft: May 17, 1995) <p>We examine the equity premium puzzle with the perspective of the theory of Rational Beliefs Equilibrium (RBE) and show that from the perspective of this theory there is no puzzle. In an RBE agents need to be compensated for the endogenously...</p>

September 9, 1997 (Updated November 28, 1998) <p> The theory of Rational Belief Equilibria (RBE) offers a unified paradigm for explaining market volatility by the effect of "Endogenous Uncertainty" on financial markets. This uncertainty is propagated within the economy (hence "endogenous") by the...</p>