Showing 1 - 10 of 16
``Disorder-induced volatility'' (DIV) describes the enhanced fluctuations of collective behaviors exhibited by bistable systems in the presence of a rapidly fluctuating external signal. At the DIV resonance, a defining characteristics is that the response of the system becomes uncorrelated with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161423
We develop the concept of ``dragon-kings'' corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496681
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496682
We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496684
We present a new theory of homogeneous volatility (and variance) estimators for arbitrary stochastic processes. The main tool of our theory is the parsimonious encoding of all the information contained in the OHLC prices for a given time interval by the joint distributions of the high-minusopen,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496685
A new delay equation is introduced to describe the punctuated evolution of complex nonlinear systems. A detailed analytical and numerical investigation provides the classification of all possible types of solutions for the dynamics of a population in the four main regimes dominated respectively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496686
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496687
On December 16th, 2011, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event followed other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon or Linkedin among others. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551386
We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the ``Zipf factor'', which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical characteristics of a bubble described in the JLS model, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161410
This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume 'From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?'. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161412