This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to...

Two fundamental problems in economic analysis concern the determination of aggregate output, and the determination of market prices and quantities. The way economic adjustments are made at the micro level suggests that the history of shocks to the economic environment matters. This paper...

This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign ex-change trader-arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three-currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a...

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by “structural†variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by...

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The...

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The...

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper...