This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance … able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot …

The market value of U.S. corporations was nearly halved following the oil crisis of October 1973. Real energy prices … by corporations. This paper uses a neo-classical growth model to quantify the impact of the increase in energy prices on …

sized shock to oil prices increases the probability of recession in the U.S. by about 60 percentage points over the …

(economic instability) for oil importing countries. We argue that this relation is more subtle. The endogenous choices of prices …) in oil importing countries since the mid-1980s when the OPEC cartel changed its market strategies from setting prices to … setting quantities, despite the fact that oil prices are far more volatile today than they were 30 years ago.> …

that oil-price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the US economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect … economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil …

Recent research showing negative correlations between detrended output and prices during the postwar period has brought … into question the conventional wisdom that prices are procyclical. However, this finding has been shown to be sensitive to … the sample period considered. This paper examines the relationship between output and prices in the frequency domain …

prices. Applications to value-at-risk and portfolio choice calculations illustrate the importance of using arbitrage …