Hafer, R. W.; Hein, Scott E.; Kool, Clemens J.M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1985
This paper derives one-month ahead forecasts of the money (M I) multiplier using the Multi-State Kalman Filter and Box-Jenkins ARIMA methods. A comparison of the forecasts far the period 1980-82 reveals that the Multi-State Kalman Filter procedure was generally superior to the ARIMA procedure In...