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The P-star approach to the link between money and prices

Tatom, John A. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1990

This paper examines several specification errors in the M2-based P* model and develops an M1-based estimate of this model. The apparent statistical significance of M2 is shown to arise from a spurious regression that uses a non-stationary regressor and because the significance test for M2 is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352827

Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2001

This paper investigates the impact historically of aggregate price shocks on financial stability in the United Kingdom. We construct an annual index of U.K. financial conditions for 1790-1999 and use a dynamic probit model to estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on the index. We find...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352840

The cyclical relationship between output and prices: an analysis in the frequency domain

Pakko, Michael R. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1997

Recent research showing negative correlations between detrended output and prices during the postwar period has brought … into question the conventional wisdom that prices are procyclical. However, this finding has been shown to be sensitive to … the sample period considered. This paper examines the relationship between output and prices in the frequency domain …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360577

Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis

Bordo, Michael D.; Dueker, Michael J.; Wheelock, David C. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2001

This paper presents empirical evidence on the hypothesis that aggregate price disturbances cause or worsen financial distress. We construct two annual indexes of financial conditions for the United States covering 1790-1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on each index using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360618

Location determinants of new foreign-owned manufacturing plants

Coughlin, Cletus C.; Segev, Eran - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1997

Manufacturing employment in the United States has tended to fall since 1979. Geographically, the Northeast and Mideast regions have incurred the brunt of this decline and, except in the Southwest region, urban countries have tended to fare worse than rural countries. Meanwhile, foreign-owned...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352868

Exchange rate pass-through in U. S. manufacturing: exchange rate index choice and asymmetry issues

Coughlin, Cletus C.; Pollard, Patricia S. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

This paper explores two issues that have received limited attention in the exchange rate pass-through literature. First, are the pass-through estimates sensitive to the choice of the exchange rate index? Second, are pass-through estimates asymmetric with respect to the sign of exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352894

Manufacturing export performance at the state level, 1963-1980

Coughlin, Cletus C.; Fabel, Oliver - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1987

In the 1960s and 1970s international trade was increasingly important for employment and economic growth at the state level; however, scholarly research on the numerous issues concerning international trade and state economic activity is negligible. The present research uses a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360608

How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?

Bullard, James; Russell, Steven - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1998

We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly financial intermediation, and taxes on nominal quantities. We find a stationary equilibrium of the model matches a wide variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. We then calculate that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490871

The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?

Nelson, Edward - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2004

This paper revisits the issue of what factors motivated the macroeconomic policies that led to the Great Inflation of the 1970s. A satisfactory explanation must be consistent with (1) the estimated monetary policy reaction function; (2) the timing patterns relating monetary policy developments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490874

Escapist policy rules

Bullard, James; Cho, In-Koo - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2003

We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of ‘large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490880

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