This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different...

This analysis examines the long-run demand for the adjusted monetary base in the United States, 1919-1999. When the "price"of the base is measured by the inverse of the yield on long-term, high-quality corporate bonds and an appropriate functional form is selected, the quantity of base money...

The acceleration of productivity growth during the latter half of the 1990s was both the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the conflict between incoming aggregate data, which initially suggested...

In this paper, we examine the use of Box-Tiao*s (1977) canonical correlation method as an alternative to likelihood-based inferences for vector error-correction models. It is now well-known that testing of cointegration ranks based on Johansen*s (1995) ML-based method suffers from severe small...

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the...

This paper examines how recent changes in the U.S. financial system have affected the appropriate definition, construction and interpretation of the St. Louis adjusted monetary base and adjusted reserves. Since 1990, reductions in statutory reserve requirements have significantly reduced the...

Despite the increasing use of electronic payments, currency retains an important role in the payments system of every country. Two aspects of currency usage drive currency design worldwide: deterring counterfeiting and making paper currency accessible to the visually impaired. Further, among the...

Since January 1994, the Federal Reserve Board has permitted depository institutions in the United States to implement so-called retail sweep programs. The essence of these programs is computer software that dynamically reclassifies customer deposits between transaction accounts, which are...

This paper provides a consistent, monthly measure of the amount of the U.S. adjusted monetary base that is domestically held, and of the amount held abroad. Most macroeconomic models that address the role of outside money as a determinant of the economy's aggregate price level are closed economy...

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' adjusted monetary base combines in a single index Federal Reserve actions that affect the supply base money -- open market operations, discount window lending and unsterilized foreign exchange market intervention -- with actions that affect depository...