, having only transitory effects. Statistical tests suggest both asymmetries were present in post-war recessions, although the …

NBER-dated recessions and expansions. Also, the Markov-switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the … “bounce-back” effect is large, implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small. Meanwhile, having accounted for … find larger permanent effects of recessions. …

component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions. …

aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we …

The nature of the business cycle appears to have changed. Prior to the 1990s, recoveries from recessions were quick and … steep; after the past three recessions, however, recoveries were weak and prolonged. We consider the effect of a number of … countercyclical policies intended to shorten recessions and speed recoveries. Our innovation is to analyze the duration of the …

cities that experience simultaneous idiosyncratic housing recessions. We estimate the clustered Markov-switching model …

the period surrounding the 1990-91 NBER recession, six of the seven states had recessions that were much shorter than for … Tennessee-entered and exited recession earlier than the country as a whole. Recessions in the other three states began earlier …