We re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and a composite specification. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications - purchasing power parity...

To play the role of a unit of account, an international currency must be a currency widely used to invoice international trade. This paper investigates the determinants of the use of currency in trade invoicing and evaluates the potential of the renminbi for the denomination of cross-border...

This paper studies the effects of unconventional monetary policies in the major advanced economies. We first examine the cross-border financial market impact of central bank announcements of asset purchase programmes based on event studies. We find marked effects, as expansionary balance sheet...

The need for a deeper understanding of the operation of Hong Kong's currency board arrangements was highlighted during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. A model-based approach built on hypothetical stochastic simulations would be useful for this purpose. This paper develops a new procedure of...

The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on one-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered...

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies¡Xwhich largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration...

This paper applies a new measure of the effectiveness of sterilized interventions to data for 16 economies. The measure is defined as the difference between ex ante(xaEMP) and ex post exchange market pressure(xpEMP). xaEMP is calculated on the basis of a counterfactual that no intervention takes...

Based on a simple theoretical exchange rate model, this paper shows how persistent balance of payments surpluses build up appreciation pressure on a fixed exchange regime in a partially-open economy such as China. A deregulated market interest rate may work as an automatic stabilizer to release...

We investigate the performance and risk of currency hedge funds using a large and unique consolidated currency hedge fund dataset. We find that a substantial number of hedge funds generate returns that exceed foreign exchange risk premia obtained through carry trades. The best alpha-generating...