We develop models for examining possible predictors of the return on gold that embrace six global factors (business cycle, nominal, interest rate, commodity, exchange rate and stock price factors) and two uncertainty indices (the Kansas City Fed’s financial stress index and the U.S. Economic...

Past studies suggest that the Islamic Â…nance system is only weakly linked or even de- coupled from conventional markets. If this statement is true, then this system may provide a cushion against potential losses resulting from probable future Â…nancial crises. In this article, we make use...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive

This study examines the effects of the monetary policy of the United States on commodity prices. Using a Bayesian Structural VAR, we identify the interest rate shocks as a measure of the stance of the U.S. mon- etary policy and evaluate their impacts on different types of commodity prices. The...

This paper examines the effects of the monetary policy of China on commodity prices. Using a Bayesian Structural VAR, we identify shocks to the interest rate as a price rule and to the monetary aggregate (M2) as a quantity rule, and then evaluate their impacts on commodity prices. Those prices...

This paper explores the relevance of asymmetry and long memory in modeling and forecasting the

This paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions, using the vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error-correction Models (VECM). The data are monthly for the prices of oil, coal, natural gas, electricity and carbon emission allowances. The results show that: (i) a...

We investigate the dynamic relationships between the US five-year financial CDS sector index spreads for the banking, financial services and insurance sectors in the short- and long-run over the recent period which is marked by the onset of the global financial crisis. For this purpose, we...

We compare nonlinear cointegration tests with the standard cointegration tests in studying the relationship of the Dow Jones Islamic finance index with three other conventional equity market indices. Our results show that there is a long-run nonlinear cointegrating relationship between the Dow...

Two recent nonlinear causality tests are used to examine the causal linkages across increasingly important international equity and commodity markets. We show that nonlinear causality is more appealing when asymmetric patterns are accounted for. The results are crucial to hedging and portfolio...