The forward premium anomaly refers to the situation where the slope coefficient in a regression of spot returns on the lagged interest rate differential is negative and significantly different to unity. This paper explores some of the asymmetries and non linearities present in the anomaly and...

This paper constructs tests for the presence of nonlinearity of unknown form in addition to a fractionally integrated, long memory component in a time series process. The tests are based on artificial neural network structures and do not restrict the parametric form of the nonlinearity. The...

This paper considers estimation and inference in some general non linear time series models which are embedded in a strongly dependent, long memory process. Some new results are provided on the properties of a time domain <i>MLE</i> for these models. The paper also includes a detailed simulation study...

Daily futures returns on six important commodities are found to be well described as FIGARCH fractionally integrated volatility processes, with small departures from the martingale in mean property. The paper also analyzes several years of high frequency intra day commodity futures returns and...

This paper introduces a new long memory volatility process, denoted by Adaptive <i>FIGARCH</i>, or <i>A-FIGARCH</i>, which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process. Structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying...