A new multivariate random walk model with slowly changing drift and cross-correlations for multivariate processes is introduced and investigated in detail. In the model, not only the drifts and the cross-covariances but also the cross-correlations between single series are allowed to change...

This paper introduces a spatial framework for high-frequency returns and a faster double-conditional smoothing algorithm to carry out bivariate kernel estimation of the volatility surface. A spatial multiplicative component GARCH with random effects is proposed to deal with multiplicative random...

Impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany

Published in China Agricultural Economic Review

We propose a fast data-driven procedure for decomposing seasonal time series using the Berlin Method, the software used by the German Federal Statistical Office in this context. Formula of the asymptotic optimal bandwidth h_A is obtained. Meth- ods for estimating the unknowns in h_A are...

This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-term and short-term risk components in Chinese financial market and to compare them with those in mature financial markets. For this purpose a most recently proposed Semi-APARCH is applied to the Shanghai Index and the Shenzhen Index, and four...

This paper proposes a local linear estimator for diurnal patterns of transaction durations under a special nonparametric regression model, whose asymptotics are different to any known results. An iterative plug-in algorithm is developed for selecting the bandwidth. The ACD model is then applied...

This paper discusses forecasting of long memory and a nonparametric scale function in nonnegative financial processes based on a fractionally integrated Log-ACD (FI-Log-ACD) and its semiparametric extension (Semi-FI-Log-ACD). Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary...

This paper introduces a tree-form constant market share (CMS) analysis for modelling growth causes in international trade between a focus country and a single destination based on a complex data set classified at three levels. Basic properties of this model are investigated briefly. The...