The aim of this document is to provide a forecasting tool that facilitates understanding economic developments in a timely manner. This is pursued through the Bridge Model approach by using it to relate a large set of monthly indicators to Chilean GDP and its main components. The outcome is a...

We analyze the possible effects of eventual changes in regulatory limits to the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) for residential mortgage loans in Chile. In Chile there are three major types of mortgage loans, but the market is concentrated in the type without regulatory limits to the LTV. However,...

This paper reviews the literature on trade with asymmetric information, from the seminal contribution of Akerlof (1970) to the recent paper by Shimer (2013) presented at the XVI Conference of the Central Bank of Chile.

This paper analyzes the role played by BancoEstado in providing credit during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. An analysis of the data shows that BancoEstado increased its credit significantly, particularly in terms of loans to firms, increasing its market share and remaning profitable. A large...

This paper provides, via Monte Carlo simulations, estimates of the classical probability of overfitting under an autoregressive environment (AR), using the information criteria (IC) of Akaike, Schwarz and Hannan-Quinn (AIC, BIC and HQ), calibrated with Chilean data of total inflation, core...

Stops or reversals of foreign capital inflows can result in costly current account adjustments unless they are offset by other forms of external financing, such as capital inflows driven by a retrenchment of domestic investors. In this paper we propose a measure of vulnerability that...

In this paper we analyze the empirical relationship between inflation and economic growth in both level as well as its uncertainty components based in a bivariate GARCH model for Chilean economy. Then we proceed to analyze the economic causality between level/uncertainty for both nominal and...

In this paper we analyze the Chilean Consumer Price Index (CPI) with respect to ten price indexes representing the average price faced by ten different income groups. We construct these indexes using information from two versions of the Household Expenditure Survey: that obtained for the period...

Commodity exporter economies usually suffer when a boom in commodity prices ends, especially if the cycle ends abruptly. Furthermore, recent literature has highlighted the role of financial instability as either causing or aggravating financial and real crises. In this paper we look at these two...

We use detailed trade, tariff, and income data for countries involved in 91 trade agreements negotiated since 1980 to test for reciprocity in free trade agreements. The results offer strong evidence of reciprocity in North-North and South-South free trade agreements, but there is little...