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Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2009
period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald … account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005184983
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Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Spending and Revenue
Afonso, António; Rault, Cristophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend …, Austria Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463734
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What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic.
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2007
We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and … policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within subperiods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593005
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Euler Testing Ricardo and Barro in the EUs
Afonso, António - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
, indicate that it would be wise to reject the debt neutrality hypothesis for the EU and that higher government indebtedness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593009
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Should we Care for Structural Breaks When Assessing Fiscal Sustainability?
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2008
sustainability in the overall EU15 panel. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593048
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Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU
Afonso, António; Furceri, Davide - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2007
In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593059
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Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union
Afonso, António; Carvalho, Rui - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2014
In this paper we assess the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010739672
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The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal
Afonso, António; Silva, Jorge - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2012
This study aims at explaining the deviation between the budget balance ratio forecasts and the outcomes in the Portuguese official forecasts and in the European Commission (EC) vintage forecasts. Therefore, we used data from the EC for the period 1969-2011 and also the Portuguese official...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010599170
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Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2010
This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008752828
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Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union
Afonso, António; Sequeira, Ana - ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department … - 2010
We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765123