Pereira’s (2000) method of computing the return on public investment in a VAR is extended. A new return measure which accounts for public and private costs is proposed. An application to US data shows non-trivial differences between alternative return rates.

We compare Europe with the USA and Canada as regards business cycle synchronization and core-periphery patterns. A long sample (1950-2005) makes it possible to study how these aspects have evolved over time. Results support the economic viability of EMU. Average cyclical correlations among...

This paper studies the impact of partisan national fiscal policy on the optimal central bank design of a two-country monetary union. In each country two parties with different preferences compete for office, their succession in power being formalized as zero-mean political shocks. These contrast...

In this paper we review the European macroeconomic policy framework, and address the issue of setting safe deficit targets - targets that make it very unlikely that a country exceeds the 3 per cent ceiling of the Stability and Growth Pact. In this context, the scope for an increase in public...

The impact of human and public capital on growth is a major issue in economic theory and in policy evaluation. Using a cointegrated VAR, we estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function for Portugal with public and human capital. Return rates are then computed with and without dynamic feedbacks....

This paper analyses the track record of fiscal forecasts reported by 15 European countries in the context of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. For the budget balance, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and interest payments, we study the statistical properties of forecast errors and their...