We investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the 1996-2010 period by employing a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to...

Inflation persistence has been put forward as one of the potential reasons of divergence among euro area members. It has also been proposed that the new EU Member States (NMS) may struggle with even higher persistence due to convergence factors. We argue that persistence may not be as different...

In this work we focus on the application of wavelet-based methods in volatility modeling. We introduce a new, wavelet-based estimator (wavelet Whittle estimator) of a FIEGARCH model, ARCH-family model capturing long-memory and asymmetry in volatility, and study its properties. Based on an...

We introduce a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on generalization of the heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) for realized volatility. Multivariate extensions of popular HAR framework leave substantial information unmodeled in residuals....

In the past decade, the popularity of realized measures and various linear models for volatility forecasting has attracted attention in the literature on the price variability of energy markets. However, results that would guide practitioners to a specic estimator and model when aiming for the...

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the...

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom), applying a moment-based estimator in a time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our...

We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy. First, we specify a theoretical model of central bank board decision-making and simulate the voting outcomes. Three different versions of model are estimated with simulated data: 1)...

This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding on how inflation targets are set. For this reason, we first gather evidence from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire sent to central banks on how inflation targets are set; we then estimate the...

The short-run increase in prices following an unexpected tightening of monetary policy represents a frequently reported puzzle. Yet the puzzle is easy to explain away when all published models are quantitatively reviewed. We collect and examine about 1,000 point estimates of impulse responses...