This paper aims to determine the role of EU in Turkey's trade flows by using the gravity model. It also aims to test whether the Customs Union (of EU) that Turkey entered in 1996 made a deviation in Turkey's trade flows. Regional trade agreements on the one hand create new trade opportunities...

Introducing capital market imperfections to a 'footloose capital'’model, I show how such distortions may explain the observed phenomena of an industrialized north and an underdeveloped south. Further, I show that with inter-generational savings internationalization will cause a crowding out of...

Dieser Beitrag soll einen Überblick und eine Systematik im Hinblick auf die aktuellen Beiträge zum Phänomen der Fragmentierung geben. Während man im Zusammenhang mit der Ausweitung des Nord-Süd-Handels von einer "horizontalen Globalisierung" spricht, gilt Fragmentierung als Ausdruck einer...

This paper tests, in the context of the EU countries, the evidence presented by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) that economic complexity indicator is a good predictor of economic growth. Our results suggest that a group of countries in the EU with an economic complexity exceeding a certain threshold...

This paper presents an eclectic model that systematizes the dynamics of self-fulfilling crises, using the main aspects of the three typologies of third generation models, to describe the stylized facts that hasten the withdrawal of a pegged exchange rate system. The most striking contributions...

The paper tests whether the theory of Purchasing Power Parity holds in a selected sample of twenty African countries. The paper employs a panel unit root test to test whether the real exchange rates in the panel are mean reverting or not. The test employed is the Im et al (1997) test. Results...

In diesem Beitrag folgen wir der aktuellen Diskussion über die Aussagekraft der Maastricht-Kriterien für die Auswahl von Ländern zur Teilnahme an der EWU. Es wird gezeigt, daß diese Kriterien weder die Theorie optimaler Währungsgebiete ausreichend reflektieren noch der...

The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality,...

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate...

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...