Over the last years there has been considerable interest in the application of long memory time series models in economics using ARFIMA models. Nowadays, the most popular estimator of the difference parameter in economic applications is that proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) although has...

In many fields of economic analysis the order of integration of some economic magnitudes is of particular interest. Among other aspects, the order of integration determines the degree of persistence of that magnitude. The rate of inflation is a very interesting example because many contradictory...

In short-term evolution analysis, the economic time series are contamined by different types of noises which need to be erased in order to extract a trend signal. In the last years there has been increasingly developed some methods to estimate unobserved components based on the assumption that...

This paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and...

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...

The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality,...

Tourism is a major source of service receipts for many countries, including Taiwan. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan, comprising a high proportion of world tourist arrivals to Taiwan, are Japan and USA, which are sources of short and long haul tourism, respectively. As it is well...

This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used...

The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...

One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, EGARCH can also...