Over the last years there has been considerable interest in the application of long memory time series models in economics using ARFIMA models. Nowadays, the most popular estimator of the difference parameter in economic applications is that proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) although has...

In many fields of economic analysis the order of integration of some economic magnitudes is of particular interest. Among other aspects, the order of integration determines the degree of persistence of that magnitude. The rate of inflation is a very interesting example because many contradictory...

In short-term evolution analysis, the economic time series are contamined by different types of noises which need to be erased in order to extract a trend signal. In the last years there has been increasingly developed some methods to estimate unobserved components based on the assumption that...

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing...

This paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and...

The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality,...

Despite the high volatilities recorded for electricity prices, there seems to be little demand for options on electricity. One reason for the disinterest in electricity options could arise from uncertainty about how to price these options. This study uses recent econometric advances to...

This paper examines the effects of structural change, long-term TFP trend and marginal return to capital on China’s economic growth, comparing such effects with those in the other East Asian economies. Our empirical results show that China’s TFP converges to a higher level, and that the...

This paper demonstrates that unit root tests can suffer from inflated Type I error rates when data are cointegrated. Results from Monte Carlo simulations show that three commonly used unit root tests – the ADF, Phillips-Perron, and DF-GLS tests – frequently overreject the true null of a unit...

This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used...