We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper also presents a simple stratified sampling procedure in the...

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...

A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...

This paper deals with the identification of treatment effects when the outcome variable is ordered. If outcomes are measured ordinally, previously developed methods to investigate the impact of an endogenous binary regressor on average outcomes cannot be applied as the expectation of an ordered...

As previously argued, the correlation between included and omitted regressors generally causes inconsistency of standard estimators for count data models. Using a specific residual function and suitable instruments, a consistent generalized method of moments estimator can be obtained under...

This paper analyzes the identifying power of weak convexity assumptions in treatment effect models with endogenous selection. The counterfactual distributions are constrained either in terms of the response function, or conditional on the realized treatment, and sharp bounds on the potential...

We study long run carbon emissions-income relationships for advanced countries grouped in policy relevant groups: North America and Oceania, South Europe, North Europe. By relying on recent advances on Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and adopting interaction models, we handle...

Recent advances in the econometric modelling of count data have often been based on the generalized method of moments (GMM). However, the two-step GMM procedure may perform poorly in small samples, and several empirical likelihood-based estimators have been suggested alternatively. In this paper...

This paper introduces a exible local projection that generalises the model by Jordà (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture non-linearities in the impulse responses. Our first application...

P(enalized)-splines and fractional polynomials (FPs) have emerged as powerful smoothing techniques with increasing popularity in several fields of applied research. Both approaches provide considerable flexibility, but only limited comparative evaluations of the performance and properties of the...