We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...

The paper provides a proof of consistency of the ridge estimator for regressions where the number of regressors tends to infinity. Such result is obtained without assuming a factor structure. A Monte Carlo study suggests that shrinkage autoregressive models can lead to very substantial...

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...

We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...

Against the background of the need for alternative and additional financing channels for SMEs in Europe, this paper analyses the market segment of debt funds. It provides a market overview and comprehensive insight into the results of the EIF Private Debt Survey, a new study that provides unique...

This European Small Business Finance Outlook (ESBFO) provides an overview of the main markets relevant to EIF (equity, guarantees, securitisation, microfinance). It is an update of the December 2017 ESBFO edition. We start by discussing the general market environment, then look at the main...

This analysis provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF. It starts by discussing the general market environment, then looks at the main aspects of equity finance and the guarantee and SME securitisation markets and, finally, it highlights important aspects of microfinance in...

The working paper presents results of the EIF VC Survey, a survey among venture capital general partner/management companies. Following the first EIF VC Survey Working Paper (2018/48), which covered the VC market sentiment and public support, this second paper analyses respondents’ feedback as...

This working paper provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF, with a particular focus on the impact of COVID-19. It starts by discussing the general market environment, then looks at the main aspects of equity finance and the markets for SME debt products and, finally, it...