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Analysts versus the random walk in financial forecasting : evidence from the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations Survey

Kladívko, Kamil; Österholm, Pär - 2022

Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013469611

The evolution of inflation and unemployment : explaining the roaring nineties

Karanassou, Marika (contributor); Sala, Hector (contributor) - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003491138

The US inflation-unemployment tradeoff : methodological issues and further evidence

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector - 2009

This paper adresses the various methodological issues surrounding vector autoregressions, simultaneous equations, and chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that money growth is a superior indicator of the monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003877115

Inequality and employment sensitivities to the falling labour share

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector - 2011

This paper aims at identifying the labour share (wage-productivity gap) as a major factor in the evolution of inequality and employment. To this end, we use annual data for the US, UK and Sweden over the past forty years and estimate country-specific systems of labour demand and Gini coefficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009157624

Labour market dynamics in Australia : what drives unemployment

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector - 2009

The debate in Australia on the (constant-output) elasticity of labour demand with respect to wages has wrongly sidelined the role of capital stock as a determinant of employment (Webster, 2003). As far back as 1991, Pissarides had argued that the influence of capital stock on the performance of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003799513

A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff

Karanassou, Marika (contributor); Sala, Hector (contributor) - 2002 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001867515

Unemployment in the European Union : institutions, prices, and growth

Karanassou, Marika (contributor); Sala, Hector (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001868121

Trend inflation in Sweden

Österholm, Pär; Poon, Aubrey - 2022

data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818429

Modelling Okun's law - does non-Gaussianity matter?

Kiss, Tamás; Nguyen, Hoang; Österholm, Pär - 2022

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799537

Modelling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond-yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian disturbances

Kiss, Tamás; Mazur, Stepan; Nguyen, Hoang; Österholm, Pär - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605022