"One basic problem in business-cycle studies is how to deal with nonstationary time series. The market economy is an evolutionary system. Economic time series therefore contain stochastic components that are necessarily time dependent. Traditional methods of business cycle analysis, such as the...

In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period - although in general at a level below the...