We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...

The identification of the effects of climate shocks on economic growth is central to design effective policies aiming at managing the future global climate change challenge. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on economic growth across different...

Using a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility, we examine the synchronization of temperature and precipitation changes across countries and regions. By doing so, we analyze the implications for the medium-term economic outlook and vulnerability to climate risks. Our findings reveal...