We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...

We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under "deep uncertainty." We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended...

As previously argued, the correlation between included and omitted regressors generally causes inconsistency of standard estimators for count data models. Using a specific residual function and suitable instruments, a consistent generalized method of moments estimator can be obtained under...