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This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt … four indexes of speculation: Working's T, the market share of non-commercial traders, the percentage of net long … speculators over total open interest in future markets, which proxy for long term speculation, and scalping, which proxies for …
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A new test is proposed for the null of absence of serial correlation. The test uses a data-driven smoothing parameter. The resulting test statistic has a standard limit distribution under the null. The smoothing parameter is calibrated to achieve rate-optimality against several classes of...
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This paper proposes a regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices that uses insights from the multiple testing (MT) literature. The approach tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not...
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Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead...
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