Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables …-walk forecast for the repo rate and Prague Interbank Offered Rate at the onemonth forecasting horizon. For the five-year and ten … horizons. For the CZE/EUR exchange rate, no statistically significant differences in forecast precision were found. …

improvement in forecast accuracy from our model is economically and statistically significant for almost all exchange-rate series …

static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine …

. Additionally, an analysis of intra-period forecasts, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including …