Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available … observations and of already-released observations capable of improving real-time output gap and inflation trend estimates. Our … findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages …

" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …