accuracy is assessed through in-sample forecast evaluation across various data sub-samples. This paper also discusses how these …

theory for persistence have some modest support: in the data, the stickier is the price of a good the more persistent is its … real exchange rate, but the theory predicts much more variation in persistence than is in the data. The predictions of the … theory for volatiity fare less well: in the data, the stickier is the price of a good the smaller is its conditional variance …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including …