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static forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382869
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This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010189497
distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice … Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest … by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009737363
Over the last years Turkey has been increasingly associated in the international political and economic debate with concepts such as "gas corridor" and "gas hub". This characterization of Turkey is clearly mainly due to its unique geographical position at the crossroads the Caspian region, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231710
Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257759
Recent growth in carbon dioxide emissions from China's energy sector has exceeded expectations. In a major US government study of future emissions released in 2007 (1), participating models appear to have substantially underestimated the near-term rate of increase in China's emissions. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008780585
Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009153310