Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996, idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i stand via styrtdykkende...

This short paper studies the empirical relationship between realized stock returns and bond yields at the 5- and 10-year investment horizons, respectively. Using annual Danish data since 1927, we find that stock returns and bond yields are closely linked in the medium and long term, as we...

This paper analyzes whether, and to what extent, the Danish 1, 5 and 10-year equity premia are predictable. We examine the predictive power of a comprehensive list of financial ratios, interest rates and so forth. The results show that the 5-year premium is predictable in the sense that the...

We suggest an alternative approach to testing whether stocks provide a hedge against inflation in the long run. Based on a simple structural model, we test the hedge hypothesis in terms of the long-run linkage between stock prices and the general price level, as estimated by cointegration...

We estimate a well-specified two-state regime-switching model for Danish stock returns. The model identifies two regimes which have low return-low volatility and high return-high volatility, respectively. The low return-low volatility regime dominated, except in a few, short episodes, until the...

Using annual data over the post-World War I-period, we estimate a fundamentals-based empirical model for the dividend-price ratio of Danish stocks. The key fundamentals-variable is a time-varying discount rate, decomposed into time-varying measures for the growth-adjusted real interest rate and...

This paper contributes to the growing literature on mean reversion in stock markets by examining a newly constructed Danish data set for the period 1922-95. Variance ratio tests clearly reject the random walk hypothesis at the 2-year horizon, that is, the riskiness of a 2- year investment is...

Over the last 25 years the Danish economy has had difficulties in growing as fast as other EU countries and the United States. While the average growth difference is small, it signals that if this trend persists into the next century, Denmark will not be able to maintain its high position in the...

This paper analyzes the consequences of pursuing a less activist Government employment stabilization policy strategy in Egypt. On the basis of a fairly stylized model we find that a reduction of the Government’s involvement in the economy along with an introduction of mild but binding firing...

Dette papir beskriver afkast og risici ved investering i det danske aktiemarked over en lang historisk periode. Det er almindeligt kendt, at aktier giver et højt gennemsnitligt afkast sammenlignet med obligationer mod til gengæld at være mere risikable på kort sigt. Derimod er det mere...