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theory for persistence have some modest support: in the data, the stickier is the price of a good the more persistent is its … real exchange rate, but the theory predicts much more variation in persistence than is in the data. The predictions of the … theory for volatiity fare less well: in the data, the stickier is the price of a good the smaller is its conditional variance …
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This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...
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This paper introduces a novel monetary policy framework where the exchange rate becomes the central instrument. Using Singapore as a case study, it explores the Monetary Authority's adoption of the exchange rate as the primary tool since 1981, diverging from conventional approaches centered on...
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