When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...

The presence of long memory in Realized Volatility (RV) is a widespread stylized fact. The origins of long memory in RV have been attributed to jumps, structural breaks, non-linearities, or pure long memory. An important development has been the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model and its...