This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series...

What is the value of hazardous weather warnings? To answer this question, we focus on the avalanche bulletin for Switzerland issued by the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF). We take a survey-based, non-market valuation approach to estimating the value of hypothetical...

When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...