We analyze the determinants of the inflation trends in ten Southeast European (SEE) countries. Global cost …-related factors and euro area (EA) inflation developments play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics in SEE countries … exchange to euro area market appear to be susceptible to inflation spillovers from the euro area. Moreover, nominal effective …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

, particularly those coming from the natural gas sector. The high peaks of the Eurozone inflation are mainly associated with gas … and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we include in our specification two separate energy markets (oil and … natural gas) and two target macroeconomic variables, measuring inflation expectations and the realized headline inflation. Our …